Election Surprises
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Rahul Gandhi and the Congress cannot be written off. What he said has struck a chord with some people. I think a lot of us (at least me) owe him an apology. Still don’t like any of his politics but he’s shown that the Twitter echo chamber are not real people.
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DMK has done well too. 40/40 is no easy feat. ADMK is done for. BJP, while vote share is better, has not opened its account. The Tamil people somehow relate to the DMK. Congrats to MKS on this. Very foolishly, I followed Savukku for TN politics and he was terribly wrong.
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BJP has to understand that only a part of their vote % is from Virat Hindus. If that was true, Ram Mandir effect would still be on, it has clearly not. BJP is trailing in Ayodhya for Rama’s sake!
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There is a recklessness with the Modi-Shah government. Whether it is inside the parliament or extrajudicial killings in US/Canada. “Gar me ghuske maarenge” is alright in Pakistan (we are not allies), but it is definitely not okay in Western countries (our allies). Not saying voters punished them for the killings, but it is indicative of the recklessness that is being seen everywhere. It spills over. It also pokes the opposition very bad. BJP needs to try to align more with other parties, even if it is the Congress. This ‘Twitter Anger’ cannot spill over to the real world. Vajpayee was a man to learn from. FFS Karunanidhi, from a diametrically opposite viewpoint aligned with the NDA for that man even if for a short while.
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Related to (1), undermining Rahul Gandhi everywhere is just cheap. The PM was meeting some gamers and he pulls a joke on RG there (calls him a noob in politics), why? This performance is definitely not what a noob does. His katakat and caste census and samvidhaan badlega have very clearly worked. Look at UP.
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This is still a win for BJP, but not the one we were promised. Has to be a tame government working with other parties. Let’s hope it doesn’t hamper whatever good trajectory the country is on.
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Vote Share win for BJP in TN. 10% is great.
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My learnings - As always, voters are right.
a) According to Pradeep Gupta, Dalits were irked in UP. Also supports the rout in Maharashtra.
b) Tamil people don’t see any alternative to DMK. It is not BJP (yet).
c) AP is just done with YSRCP. So is Odisha with BJD, Pandian is not cutting it for them.
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Irrespective of the result, India is an amazing democracy. People punish parties with vote. Parties accept the results. There is no deep state working for or against a person (unlike the US). This is a good learning for all of us, and observers from outside the country.